Sustainable Transport Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels - The need for change to a more renewable, eco-friendly source of energy
Fossil Fuels - The Facts
As countries develop they use more oil but their population increases, creating greater demand for oil.
The USA consumes about 22 barrels of oil per person per year and a developing country starts from around 3 barrels of oil per person per year. China is currently at about 2.8
China’s population is expected to stabilize at an extra 200m people by 2030 and it is clear that its people expect significant rises in their standards of living. Should the Chinese be able to unilaterally raise their living standards to a European level the combination of growth in population and standard of living could increase their oil demand five fold. This could mean that their increased demand alone would be the equivalent of about 46% of today’s total global demand for oil.
All this set against predictions that the world’s population will grow from 7 billion to 9 billion over the next 35 years which suggests that oil availability will be a source of serious impact on civilization as it has developed today.
If China’s demand could be 46% of todays consumption what will that rise to when the next third of the worlds population attains the benfits of a fully industrialized society?
Everyone wants oil, but it is running out, this is why we need AFS and why we need financial partners in a demonstration project.
The Future
Bio-fuels, synthetic fuels, natural gas liquids, electric cars, even sustainable agriculture — all of these technologies are a response to an upcoming crisis, the pending peak in global oil production. Peak oil, first postulated by Shell Oil engineer M. King Hubbert in the 1950's, is discovery or observation that all oil fields have a period of increasing production as the oil field is brought online, a period of plateau or peak of maximum production, followed by a period of declining production. In graphical terms, the production versus time tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. Furthermore, what's true of a single oil field is also true for any given geographical area, such as the US for which there is very good data, and the world as a whole.
In 1956, Hubbert predicted US lower 48 oil production would peak in 1970, and, remarkably it did. After 1970, US oil production entered into a steep decline of about 3% per year; we now produce about ½ as much oil as we did in 1970 (5 million barrels per day versus 10 in 1970) and no amount of drilling can reverse the trend.
Now, what's happened in the US with respect to oil production (has or) is about to happen to the world as a whole.
There is an implication that there is no excess oil production capacity anywhere in the world. It is a common misconception that some Middle Eastern countries could just "turn up a valve" to pump more oil, because if this was actually possible, they would have already increased production when prices were high ($147/bbl in 2008). Even today, while in a global recession, crude oil prices have risen above $90/bbl.
Reaching peak oil, whenever it may come, does not mean we run out of oil, it merely delineates the point where oil supply can no longer keep up with demand. This gap — the difference between supply and demand — will grow every year.
What's interesting and potentially frightening is what will happen post peak oil. We know from the 2008 run-up to $147/bbl, which apparently occurred due to a red-hot global economy and supply constraints estimated to be 2% below demand, that future oil prices will increase — some say up to 33% for a 1% shortfall. If we are lucky, the transition will be smooth, with few shortages as oil is directed to those who can afford it. But the price increases will likely happen very rapidly and with each year the problem will get worse.
Oil use is pervasive and the US economy is very heav¬ily dependent on oil. It is estimated that 10 energy calories are used to produce 1 food calorie, so we might expect food costs to increase along with fuel, fertilizers, transportation, chemicals, etc. Given historical recessions following the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the 1979 Iran crisis and the 1991 Iraq war I, it is easy to forecast another recession in our future.
The world needs to find an alternative to fossil fuels. Whatever the alternative, it must be a completely sustainable fuel to ensure the methods of transport as we know it can continue. There are options for sustainable transport fuels, and AFS believe their method is a valuable alternative to fossil fuels.
